Matt's concise vote for the future of humanity opinion poll.

Author: MattVerey
Commenced 20 August 2005.
Last updated 22 April 2006.

VOTE!
Please read each scenario below and choose which one you think is the most plausible fate for the human race by checking the radio button adjacent to it and then pressing the VOTE! button. After 100 votes, the results will be published. Each IP address gets one vote. IP addresses are recorded solely for the purpose of preventing multiple votes and are kept separate from cast votes. This is the closest I could get to achieving 'one person, one vote', but who am I to possess a global electoral roll?

SCENARIO BACKGROUND
Each scenario is intended to be a brief depiction of a large portion of time from the present up to several thousand years in the future, although some scenarios may occur in as little as two hundred years. The exact timing of the events was not considered as important as simply noting the events themselves. Of the enormous number of possibilities that could befall humans, I have tried to limit them to the five most plausible. Furthermore, only the details of plausible possibilities beyond human control follow directly and have been generally omitted from the vote scenarios. Instead, the vote places emphasis more on what the human race could consciencely influence.
The cataclysms or catastrophes referred to in each scenario refer to events that are known to occur repeatedly over large periods of time and are expected to result in large loss of life. Catastrophes include, but are not limited to, phenomena such as ecosystem collapse, asteroid impact, volcanism and nuclear war in as far as they result in significant, rapid global climate change. Catastrophes may vary in magnitude: for example a lethal pandemic could kill one third of the population but a physical process such as a seismic tremor that has the potential to cause billions of tonnes of solid methane hydrate to sublime from the ocean floor and be released into the atmosphere could result in the extinction of humans. Be aware that there are two assumptions made about catastrophes in the following scenarios: the more frequent the type of catastrophic event, that less the impact on the human population; and the less technologically sophisticated a given population the more likely they are to be unprepared and thus become extinct.

THE LAST WAR
The consumption of naturally occurring resources will exceed replacement by newly discovered resources or unperfected utilisation of those resources. Prime examples of diminishing resources are oil, timber and fresh water. With an increasing global population that crudely translates to increased consumption of these resources, the increasing disproportion between demand and supply will result in large scale global conflict. This 'World War' will eventually end with the use of nuclear or biological* weapons. This will have the consequence of creating a new global paradigm that rejects technological progress. The considerably diminished remnants of humanity will dwell in this 'Neo Dark Age' until a substantial or a chain of catastrophic events results in the extinction of humans.
*Note that the term 'biological' includes 'Grey-Goo'.

BEYOND THE POINT OF NO RETURN
Wealth and ownership will continue to be the distributed only amongst an 'elite' few. Essentially accountable to no one, the elite will continue to make stupid decisions and squander the ever diminishing resources pursuing their extravagant hedonistic lifestyles. The greater majority of people will be subjugated and disenfranchised. They are unable to rebel or overthrow the elite as evermore sophisticated technology will be employed to identify and hence persecute potential dissidents. Technological progress will be concerned less with enlightening humanity and concentrate more on controlling the masses. Environmental life support systems will shut down as the billions of poor exploit and poison key ecosystems as they eek out a living. This will bring humanity tremendous suffering over generations and bringing humans to the brink of extinction at which point a minor catastrophic event will push humans over that brink.

THE MASTER PLAN
The wealthy elite consolidate with a master plan. The majority of the world's population is exploited effectively as slaves and although they are paid, their political power and influence are insignificant as the currency they garner is a trivial token of status. Technology and resources are used primarily to protect and maintain 'sanctuaries' - the last bastions of sustainable agriculture and ecosystem resources. These 'gardens for the rich' are quarantined from the masses whose numbers dwindle as orchestrated by the elite according to their new paradigm of 'achieving sustainable workforce numbers'. The brunt of almost all catastrophes is born by the workforce who subsist only on the meager resources rationed to them. Such catastrophes are relished by the elite as an extremely cost effective cull that would otherwise need to be performed by more distasteful means in order to conserve resources for eugenic efforts to create a 'superior species'.

IN THE BALANCE
A half hearted attempt is made to redress inequality and diminishing resources. Genuine attempts are made to alleviate the plight of the poor; however greed and corruption continually undermine any real success. Although the move to sustainable resources has postponed immanent demise, the greatest alleviation to diminishing resources comes from the remaining poor: inadequate health standards will result in the evolution of a microscopic pathogen that will cause a pandemic, reducing the global population significantly and discriminating solely on immune response. A cycle of population booms and crashes will follow as new pathogens come and go until humanity finds the will to stamp out corruption and greed and improve the living standard of all or eventually become extinct when a crash coincides with another catastrophe.

UTOPIA
People will realise the importance of education, equality, tolerance and compassion. A global government will be formed and be composed of true representatives. Rampant and wasteful consumption of resources will be stamped out by placing 'environmental impact' costs on products. Private ownership will be abolished and strict control over population growth will be enforced in accordance with the principles of 'fair' and sustainable distribution of resources. Poverty and disease caused by pathogens will be eliminated as a result. Technological progress will be rapid and substantial populations will inhabit places other than Earth. Human existence will be indefinite as potential catastrophes can be predicted and thus their effects on the population be minimised.

CREDIBLE OMISSION
None of the above scenarios are plausible. There are more plausible scenarios that have been omitted.

Thank you for your participation.